Can North Korea Be Stopped?

For decades, the danger that North Korea posed to the mainland United States was hypothetical. The rogue Communist nation’s leaders often spoke of destroying the “American imperialists,” but they had no real way to back up their bluster.

They’re much closer to having it now.

In July, North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile that experts say is capable of reaching many cities in the U.S. It’s a milestone in North Korea’s military capability that a long list of U.S. presidents have said could not—and would not—be tolerated.

“It’s extremely important,” says Bruce Klingner, a North Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation, a think tank in Washington, D.C., “because it’s the manifestation of North Korea’s decades-long quest to be able to threaten the U.S. with nuclear weapons. And it shows that the threat is very imminent.”

The danger that North Korea posed to the United States has been hypothetical for decades. The rogue Communist nation’s leaders have often spoken of destroying the “American imperialists." But they haven't had a real way to back up their bluster.

They’re much closer to having it now.

In July, North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile. Experts say that it's capable of reaching many U.S. cities. It’s a milestone in North Korea’s military capability. A long list of U.S. presidents have said this could not—and would not—be tolerated.

“It’s extremely important,” says Bruce Klingner, a North Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation, a think tank in Washington, D.C., “because it’s the manifestation of North Korea’s decades-long quest to be able to threaten the U.S. with nuclear weapons. And it shows that the threat is very imminent.”

There’s no reason to panic quite yet, experts say. To pose an immediate threat to the U.S., North Korea still needs to figure out how to prevent a nuclear warhead from breaking apart as the missile that carries it re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere. It also needs to determine how to aim a missile accurately enough to hit its target—something North Korea’s scientists have never mastered.  

“They’re not there yet, but they’re making progress,” says Richard Bush, a North Korea expert at another Washington think tank, the Brookings Institution.

There’s no reason to panic quite yet, experts say. To pose an immediate threat to the U.S., North Korea still needs to figure out how to prevent a nuclear warhead from breaking apart as the missile that carries it re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere. It also needs to determine how to aim a missile accurately enough to hit its target. That's something North Korea’s scientists have never mastered. 

“They’re not there yet, but they’re making progress,” says Richard Bush, a North Korea expert at another Washington think tank, the Brookings Institution.    

Under Kim’s brutal rule, most North Koreans continue to live in a totalitarian “Big Brother” state like the one George Orwell depicted in his novel 1984. Ordinary citizens have no internet access, and the government tries to keep all information about the outside world from reaching its citizens. From a young age, North Koreans learn that the U.S. is their greatest enemy.

“I grew up believing that Americans were not human, that they had horns and tails—because that’s what my teachers told me,” says Sungju Lee, who escaped from North Korea when he was 16. “The government’s main concern is protecting their regime.”

Anyone who dares to challenge the government is treated mercilessly. Smugglers sell Hollywood movies and South Korean TV shows on thumb drives or DVDs, but anyone caught watching them by the secret police risks arrest.

A 2014 United Nations report accused the Kim regime of committing “crimes against humanity” and estimated that there are as many as 120,000 political prisoners in four camps. Starvation, the report says, has been used to control and punish North Koreans, both in the camps and in the general population.

Under Kim’s brutal rule, most North Koreans continue to live in a totalitarian “Big Brother” state like the one George Orwell depicted in his novel 1984. Ordinary citizens have no internet access. The government also tries to keep all information about the outside world from reaching its citizens. From a young age, North Koreans learn that the U.S. is their greatest enemy.

“I grew up believing that Americans were not human, that they had horns and tails—because that’s what my teachers told me,” says Sungju Lee, who escaped from North Korea when he was 16. “The government’s main concern is protecting their regime.”

Anyone who dares to challenge the government is treated mercilessly. Smugglers sell Hollywood movies and South Korean TV shows on thumb drives or DVDs. But anyone caught watching them by the secret police risks arrest.

A 2014 United Nations report accused the Kim regime of committing “crimes against humanity." The U.N. estimated that there are as many as 120,000 political prisoners in four camps. Starvation, the report says, has been used to control and punish North Koreans, both in the camps and in the general population.

While much of North Korea remains impoverished, its economy has begun to show some signs of life since the younger Kim took power. Dozens of marketplaces have opened in cities across the country, a small class of politically connected merchants and entrepreneurs is developing, and the capital, Pyongyang, has seen a construction boom. This improving economic picture—at least in cities and elite circles—has made it easier for the government to withstand the pressure of international sanctions and still finance its nuclear program.

But in much of the countryside, food remains scarce. And while millions have starved—especially in the 1990s during particularly severe famines—the regime has spent billions on a massive army and nuclear weapons program.

With so many problems at home, Kim seems to have calculated that cementing the country’s status as a nuclear power will boost his standing and distract North Koreans from their plight. Kim says that the threat of sanctions or military action against the North “only strengthens our resolve and further justifies our possession of nuclear weapons.”

While much of North Korea remains impoverished, its economy has begun to show some signs of life since the younger Kim took power. Dozens of marketplaces have opened in cities across the country. A small class of politically connected merchants and entrepreneurs is developing. The capital, Pyongyang, has also seen a construction boom. This improving economic picture—at least in cities and elite circles—has made it easier for the government to withstand the pressure of international sanctions and still finance its nuclear program.

But in much of the countryside, food remains scarce. Millions have starved, especially in the 1990s during particularly severe famines. But the regime has spent billions on a massive army and nuclear weapons program.

With so many problems at home, Kim seems to have calculated that sealing the country’s status as a nuclear power will boost his standing and distract North Koreans from their plight. Kim says that the threat of sanctions or military action against the North “only strengthens our resolve and further justifies our possession of nuclear weapons.”    

Trump, like many presidents before him, has been frustrated with China’s failure to rein in North Korea. China is North Korea’s main ally and biggest trading partner, and China has historically called its relationship with North Korea “as close as lips and teeth.” Trump recently tweeted that the Chinese “do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk.”

But in August, China did vote in favor of the new U.N. sanctions. It remains to be seen, however, whether China, which fears chaos on its border if the Kim regime collapses, will actually enforce the new economic restrictions. 

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has said that “all options are on the table” for dealing with North Korea. Those options include negotiations or more economic sanctions—neither of which have worked so far—and the implied threat of a military strike against North Korea. Experts say using military force is extremely risky and could prompt the resumption of an all-out war on the Korean Peninsula with millions of casualties.

The reality, most experts say, is that there isn’t really a good solution: Fundamentally, the U.S. lacks much leverage to convince the North Koreans to change course, and the Chinese have their own reasons for not wanting to apply too much pressure.  

“The fact is they can build missiles faster than we can impose sanctions, so they’re winning the race,” says Jim Walsh, a North Korea expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Bush, of the Brookings Institution, agrees that finding a way to make North Korea give up its nuclear weapons program isn’t likely. 

“If there was a solution to this,” he says, “we would have had it a long time ago.”

Trump, like many presidents before him, has been frustrated with China’s failure to rein in North Korea. China is North Korea’s main ally and biggest trading partner. In fact, China has historically called its relationship with North Korea “as close as lips and teeth.” Trump recently tweeted that the Chinese “do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk.”

But in August, China did vote in favor of the new U.N. sanctions. It remains to be seen, however, whether China will actually enforce the new economic restrictions. Chinese officials fear chaos will erupt on China's border if the Kim regime collapses.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has said that “all options are on the table” for dealing with North Korea. Those options include negotiations or more economic sanctions. But neither of those have worked so far. There's also the implied threat of a military strike against North Korea. Experts say using military force is extremely risky and could prompt the resurgence of an all-out war on the Korean Peninsula with millions of casualties.

The reality, most experts say, is that there isn’t really a good solution. Fundamentally, the U.S. lacks much leverage to convince the North Koreans to change course. The Chinese also have their own reasons for not wanting to apply too much pressure. 

“The fact is they can build missiles faster than we can impose sanctions, so they’re winning the race,” says Jim Walsh, a North Korea expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Bush, of the Brookings Institution, agrees that finding a way to make North Korea give up its nuclear weapons program isn’t likely.

“If there was a solution to this,” he says, “we would have had it a long time ago.”

With reporting by Hailee Romain.

With reporting by Hailee Romain.