Will Young Voters Decide the Election?

Fiona Silver, 22, of Bend, Oregon, has spent much of her year trying to get other young people ready to vote in the election on November 5. As part of her job with NextGen America, a youth voting organization, she helps lead a national team of volunteers who use texting, phone calls, and social media to encourage people to register to vote.

Silver’s work focuses mainly on Gen Z-ers (born from 1997 to 2012) and Millennials (born from 1981 to 1996), segments of the population that wield an especially large amount of power when it comes to today’s elections.

“Every election cycle, we have millions of brand-new voters who turned 18 in the last two years,” Silver says. “[Young people] really do have a huge impact on the way an election goes, just because in sheer numbers, there are so many of them.”

That power is a good thing, adds Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Young voters are “the people who are going to be stuck with the actions of the new president—plus senators, House members, and so on—longer than anyone,” he says. “[They] have a greater stake in it.”

Fiona Silver, 22, lives in Bend, Oregon. This year she has spent most of her time encouraging other young people to vote in the election on November 5. She works with NextGen America, a youth voting organization. Silver helps lead a national team of volunteers who use texting, phone calls, and social media to encourage people to register to vote.

Silver’s work focuses mainly on Gen Z-ers (born from 1997 to 2012) and Millennials (born from 1981 to 1996). These groups have a large amount of power when it comes to today’s elections.

“Every election cycle, we have millions of brand-new voters who turned 18 in the last two years,” Silver says. “[Young people] really do have a huge impact on the way an election goes, just because in sheer numbers, there are so many of them.”

That power is a good thing, adds Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Young voters are “the people who are going to be stuck with the actions of the new president—plus senators, House members, and so on—longer than anyone,” he says. “[They] have a greater stake in it.”

In 1971, the 26th Amendment lowered the voting age from 21 to 18. Although many young people pushed for the change, young Americans have consistently turned out at the polls at lower rates than older voters (see graph, below).

The 2020 presidential election, however, offered some hope that young people were starting to pay more attention. The overall turnout rate of nearly 67 percent was a new record, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. And 50 percent of Americans ages 18 to 29 cast a ballot, up from 39 percent in the 2016 election.

That youth turnout likely tipped the scales for Joe Biden against Donald Trump in an election that came down to just thousands of votes in a few swing states, experts say. Biden won 60 percent of the votes of 18- to 29-year-olds, helping push him to victory.

Young voters “can affect the system,” Sabato says. “They can bend the system to their will if, as a group, they want to move in certain directions.”

Gen Z is unique because it’s the most racially and ethnically diverse generation in our nation’s history and the most likely of any generation to identify as liberal, according to a January report by the Public Religion Research Institute. But that doesn’t mean Gen Z voters will throw their support toward the more liberal candidate in any given election.

In 1971, the 26th Amendment lowered the voting age from 21 to 18. Many young people pushed for the change, but young Americans have consistently had lower voter turnout than older voters since then (see graph, below).

Young voters started to pay more attention in the 2020 election, however. The overall turnout rate was nearly 67 percent. It was a new record, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Fifty percent of Americans ages 18 to 29 cast a ballot. This was up from 39 percent in the 2016 election.

That youth turnout likely helped Joe Biden to victory over Donald Trump. The election came down to just thousands of votes in a few swing states, experts say. Biden won 60 percent of the votes of 18- to 29-year-olds.

Young voters “can affect the system,” Sabato says. “They can bend the system to their will if, as a group, they want to move in certain directions.”

Gen Z is unique because it’s the most racially and ethnically diverse generation in our nation’s history. It is the generation that is most likely to identify as liberal, according to a January report by the Public Religion Research Institute. But that doesn’t mean Gen Z voters will always support the more liberal candidate in any given election.

Polls show that young voters are most concerned with the cost of living, jobs, gun violence, and climate change, and many have also expressed unhappiness about the war in Gaza. Some have spoken out about planning not to vote this year because they feel that government doesn’t address their needs and concerns.

Every set of young voters is different from election to election, explains John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School.

“This generation seems to be voicing concern over Gaza and also voicing concern about why all of this matters, why voting” matters, he says.

Gen Z’s frustrations may have something to do with the way young people today see the world, experts note.

“[Political] parties are institutions, and Gen Z-ers aren’t really into institutions,” says Morley Winograd, senior fellow at the Annenberg Center on Communication Leadership and Policy at the University of Southern California.

In New York Times interviews earlier this year with nearly two dozen voters under the age of 30, some described the country’s political climate as “scary,” “disheartening,” “not in a good place,” and “pretty depressing.”

Biden’s departure from the presidential race this summer and Vice President Kamala Harris’s nomination energized some voters. Within two days of Biden’s announcement, Vote.org saw 38,500 new voter registrations, most of whom were 34 and under—a 700 percent spike. Taylor Swift’s September endorsement of Harris sent hundreds of thousands of people to registration sites.

Polls show that young voters are most concerned with the cost of living, jobs, gun violence, and climate change. Many have also expressed unhappiness about the war in Gaza. Some have spoken out about planning not to vote this year. They feel that government doesn’t focus on their needs and concerns.

Every set of young voters is different from election to election, explains John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School.

“This generation seems to be voicing concern over Gaza and also voicing concern about why all of this matters, why voting” matters, he says.

Gen Z’s frustrations may have something to do with the way young people today see the world, experts note.

“[Political] parties are institutions, and Gen Z-ers aren’t really into institutions,” says Morley Winograd, senior fellow at the Annenberg Center on Communication Leadership and Policy at the University of Southern California.

In New York Times interviews earlier this year with nearly two dozen voters under the age of 30, some described the country’s political climate as “scary,” “disheartening,” “not in a good place,” and “pretty depressing.”

Biden’s departure from the presidential race this summer and Vice President Kamala Harris’s nomination energized some voters. Within two days of Biden’s announcement, Vote.org saw 38,500 new voter registrations, a 700 percent spike. Most of the new voters were 34 and under. Taylor Swift’s September endorsement of Harris sent hundreds of thousands of people to registration sites.

But the youth vote is still hard to predict, experts say, in part because of what appears to be a vast gender gap: In an August Times poll, for example, women ages 18 to 29 favored Harris by 38 points, while men in the same age group favored Trump by 13 points. That’s a 51-point divide along gender lines, larger than in any other generation group in this election.

Although some members of Gen Z remain unhappy about the current state of the nation, others see voting as a way to try to set Americans on a new course, notes Silver of NextGen America.

“There’s a lot of frustration, but I think that leads to a lot of young voters feeling really passionate about what’s on the ballot this year,” she says. “This is our future that we’re voting for.”

But the youth vote is still hard to predict, experts say. There appears to be a large gender gap. In an August Times poll, for example, women ages 18 to 29 favored Harris by 38 points, while men in the same age group favored Trump by 13 points. That’s a 51-point divide along gender lines, larger than in any other generation group in this election.

Some members of Gen Z remain unhappy about the current state of the nation. But many see voting as a way to try to set Americans on a new course, notes Silver of NextGen America.

“There’s a lot of frustration, but I think that leads to a lot of young voters feeling really passionate about what’s on the ballot this year,” she says. “This is our future that we’re voting for.”