The agreement also hinges on more difficult negotiations to come between the Taliban and the Afghan government over the country’s future. Officials hope those talks will produce a power-sharing arrangement and lasting cease-fire.
“I really believe the Taliban wants to do something to show that we’re not all wasting time,” President Trump said in Washington hours after the agreement had been signed. “If bad things happen, we’ll go back.”
The war in Afghanistan has cost $2 trillion so far and has claimed the lives of more than 3,500 American and coalition troops, as well as tens of thousands of Afghans.
The withdrawal of American troops—about 12,000 are still in Afghanistan—is dependent on the Taliban’s fulfillment of major commitments that have been obstacles for years, including its severance of ties with international terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda.
American efforts to establish a democratic system in the country, and to improve opportunities for women and minorities, are at risk if the Taliban, which banned girls from schools and women from public life, become dominant again. Corruption is still rampant, the country’s institutions are feeble, and the economy is heavily dependent on American and other international aid.
At the height of the war, more than 100,000 American troops occupied Afghanistan, as did tens of thousands from about 40 nations in the United States-led NATO coalition.
The war has gone on so long—the first allied warplane and cruise missiles struck on Oct. 7, 2001, and American boots hit the ground in numbers on Oct. 19—that many young Afghan soldiers and their coalition partners have no memory of its beginning.
With the signing of the deal, the U.S. and Taliban sides clearly stated their commitment to not attack each other. Just how much the Taliban will hold fire on Afghan security forces before an official cease-fire is reached in Afghan negotiations remains a point of uncertainty and worry.
Zalmay Khalilzad, the chief U.S. negotiator and himself a native of Afghanistan, struck an optimistic but somber tone.
“Today is a day for hope,” he said. “Today is a day to remember. We must remember the lessons of history, and the darkness of conflict.”